# How to read a prediction market carefully

_By Apoorv Khanna, September 28, 2026_

A prediction-market headline often leaves out the condition that decides the outcome. Two contracts can mention the same event and still resolve differently because they use different dates or sources.

Use Vaaya to assemble a read-only research brief before interpreting a price. The deliverable is a source-linked contract summary, a timestamped market snapshot and a short list of unresolved questions. You do not need to fund a trading account to specify this research task.

## 1. Name the contract you want to understand

If you have a market URL, start with it. Otherwise provide the event, platform and relevant date range. Ask the agent to return candidate markets for review before selecting one based on a fuzzy title match.

Connect through [Vaaya's installation guide](https://vaaya.ai/install), then use a request such as:

```text
Research [market URL or event] using current public market data.
This is read-only: do not place orders or request wallet signatures.
Find the exact contract, outcome definitions and resolution rules.
Preserve platform, market ID, source URL and observation time.
Collect available price, spread, liquidity and recent activity fields;
mark unavailable fields unknown. Do not infer them from the headline.
Show the retrieval plan and stay within [research budget].
```

A single clearly identified market is a better first run than a platform-wide sweep. Add a second contract after you know which fields the first source can support.

## 2. Discover the current data route

Vaaya's [catalog](https://vaaya.ai/api/catalog) lists BlockRun market-data routes, including `blockrun/fetch` with the endpoint `/api/v1/pm/polymarket/markets`. The endpoint is part of the request, not a detail the agent can omit. Other rows cover market prices, activity and orderbook data.

Ask `consult` to select the current route and input shape for the question. Check the chosen endpoint, required identifiers and price before execution. A market identifier, an event identifier and an outcome token identifier may refer to different objects; carry the returned identifier into the next request rather than substituting the title.

Save the responses with their retrieval times. A successful catalog lookup establishes that a route is listed, not that every platform field will be populated for your chosen market.

## 3. Read the resolution rules before the price

Open the original market page. Record the precise question, deadline, named resolution source, outcome definitions and exceptions. Preserve a link to the rules so a reviewer can inspect the full wording.

Polymarket's [resolution guidance](https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364518-how-are-prediction-markets-resolved) says markets resolve according to their predefined rules. Use those rules to explain what evidence would satisfy the contract. Avoid substituting a general news interpretation for a narrower contractual condition.

If the rules leave your scenario unclear, put that ambiguity in the brief. A language model should not settle it by writing a more confident paraphrase.

## 4. Keep price and execution conditions separate

Record whether the returned number is a last trade, bid, ask or another displayed measure. If the source only gives a generic price field, keep that label and state the limitation. A recent-looking page does not guarantee that a price is executable for a particular size.

Use this empty worksheet as the output contract:

| Field | What belongs in the brief |
| --- | --- |
| Identity | Platform, event, market and outcome IDs |
| Rules | Deadline, resolution source and important exclusions |
| Observation | Source timestamp, retrieval timestamp and price type |
| Trading context | Available spread, depth and activity fields |
| Uncertainty | Missing fields, unclear rules and stale observations |

Do not fill a missing liquidity field with volume. Do not treat an unavailable orderbook as an empty one. Keep the source's units with each value.

## 5. Compare only equivalent questions

For a comparison, place each contract's rules beside its data. Explain any difference in timing or resolution before discussing a difference in prices. If the contracts are not equivalent, retain them as separate observations.

Finish with the worksheet and a short source-linked account of what changed, if you have two dated snapshots. Leave future outcomes unresolved. The next research step should answer an identified evidence gap, rather than purchase more market data without a question.

## Questions

**Does a market price prove the event has that probability?**

It is a market observation under specific contract rules and trading conditions. Treat it as one input; preserve its timestamp and avoid presenting it as a guaranteed or calibrated forecast.

**Can I compare two markets with similar titles?**

Read both contracts first. Different deadlines, sources, exclusions or resolution conditions can make similar titles describe different events.

**Does this tutorial place bets or connect a trading wallet?**

No. It retrieves public market information and produces a research brief. No deposit, signature, order or position change is part of the workflow.